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A study of India-Myanmar and Sino-Myanmar relations offer some interesting aspects of how they are adopting the geo-strategic setting and political environment of the region to their advantage. Geo-strategic reality Myanmar shares common borders with five countries: Bangladesh km, China 2, km, India 1, km, Laos km, and Thailand 1, km.
Thailand borders the entire eastern part of Myanmar except for narrow strip that borders Laos. And this makes Myanmar a strategic land bridge linking South, and Southeast Asia. Its km long coastline dominates the eastern arch of the Bay of Bengal, leaning on to the Malacca Strait.
Both sides of the regions bordering Myanmar are mostly populated by ethnic communities with their own distinct ethnic, religious and linguistic identities from the rest of the countries. However, the majority Burmese population, who are Buddhists, lives in the fertile and more developed southern Myanmar with easier access from China.
Thus the northern tribal regions of Myanmar have suffered neglect and remain under developed. This has given rise to a sense of alienation among ethnic tribes, many of who had waged relentless wars for their independence. At the same time it facilitates easier movement from the Chinese border in the northeast, and provides for natural flow of traffic. The Chinese have used this favourable terrain configuration to build road from the Chinese border to Mandalay in the heart of Myanmar and onward to the coast.
China has found it useful to link the development of Yunnan region jointly with Myanmar and Laos. Thus the two-way border trade and commerce is qualitatively and quantitatively better with China than with India.
India-Myanmar relations India-Myanmar relations have a long history of substantive political, cultural, religious and social interaction. During the British colonial period Myanmar was administered as a part of British India till Till the end of the Second World War, Indian traders, professionals and administrators had followed the British to work in Myanmar. The Indian freedom movement inspired the freedom struggle in Myanmar.
Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru and Aung San, who spearheaded the freedom struggle, had built close personal relationship between them. After Burma became independent in , the fledgling democracy led by Prime Minister U Nu sought the advice and counsel of Pandit Nehru on more than one occasion.
They built a close rapport and the two countries benefited from this relationship. Political rivalry, factionalism, and corruption coupled with the ever growing ethnic and communist insurgencies made democratic rule ineffective. However, found ret , t for the first decade and a half when democracy struggled to articulate itself, the Burma-India relationship drifted apart.
Gen Ne Win, the Burmese army chief, who seized power and ruled the country from to 88, was essentially a xenophobic leader. India also provided sanctuary and financial assistance to fleeing pro-democracy activists.
There had been a phenomenal growth in Chinese influence in Myanmar particularly after the western nations slapped a ban on sale of arms to Myanmar in This was a matter of serious concern as it brought the threat from Chinese mainland nearer home to the northeast. Since then the successive Indian Government, have embarked upon building a broad based relationship with Myanmar touching upon defence, trade and commerce, energy sector, and developmental assistance and confidence building with the top level.
Though this clouded the relationship for a while, it Y made. This further e military regime became suspicious of India ganging up with the West against the regime. As a result India has jettisoned its support for the democratic movement in Myanmar. It has progressively withdrawn the succour provided to the Myanmar leaders who had taken refuge in India. Development of the seven Northeastern states has remained stagnant resulting in the alienation of sections of society and encouraging the growth of insurgency.
Development of land and sea links for through Myanmar could end their isolation and wean them away from insurgency. Better relations and coordination with the regime in Myanmar could put an end to the operation of such insurgencies. There have been a number of high level visits between the leaders of the two countries.
Visits of ministers and chiefs of armed forces from both countries have also taken place. There had been regular meetings at the ministerial level to monitor the progress of various projects involving India in Myanmar. To improve connectivity with Myanmar, India has taken up a number of road and port construction projects. It is also assisting in the proposed trilateral highway project to connect Moreh in Manipur to Mae Sot in Thailand via Bagan in Myanmar.
This would enable transportation by river transport and road to Mizoram providing an alternate route for transport of goods to northeast India. A proposal to build a rail link from Jiribaum in Assam to Hanoi in Vietnam through Myanmar is also on the cards. India is slowly becoming a regular supplier of arms to Myanmar, joining the ranks of China, Russia and Ukraine. Initially, India had supplied low tech arms and armaments, including mm guns, T tanks, light helicopters, transport planes, artillery ammunition and some naval craft.
However, there had been a progressive up gradation of these exports. India is taking steps such as extending airlines, land and sea routes to strengthen trade links with Myanmar. It is also cooperating with Myanmar in areas like agriculture, telecommunications, and oil and gas sectors etc. We are not interested in exporting our own ideology.
We are a democracy and we would like democracy to flourish everywhere. But this is for every country to decide for itself. Independent Burma was one of the first countries to recognise the Peoples Republic of China in December The two countries signed the first trade agreement in and a boundary treaty in Yet in armies of both countries launched joint operations to evict Kuomintang troops from parts of Shan state in Myanmar.
For the next six years, Sino-Myanmar relations had troubled times with periodic persecution of ethnic Chinese and anti-Chinese riots in Myanmar. Between and Chinese gave full support to the CPB insurgents to fight the military junta successfully. The Chinese also provided similar aid to Kachin, Shan rebels and Naga militants during this period. The CPB organised a number of insurgent groups to operate jointly against the military regime. The year was a turbulent period both in China with the Tian An Mien square agitation and the Movement of students in Myanmar.
Perhaps this generated some kindred spirit in the regimes in both the countries. In , China formally advised CPB to retire in keeping with its revised policy to stop assisting insurgents of other countries. This crucial decision helped the military junta to end the Communist insurgency and cripple Kachin and Shan insurgencies to a large extent.
Since then China has stepped its influence through economic, military and development assistance. China has been providing military hardware to Myanmar to overcome international sanctions and help Tatmadaw to grow in strength.. China has considerable economic influence in a number of fields, including supply of electricity and trade and commerce.
Unlike ethnic Indian community, which had been languishing as second class citizens under Myanmar citizenship laws, China has managed the absorption of ethnic Chinese as citizens of Myanmar. With this aim in view China had been underwriting the development roads from northern borders to south. China has proved time and again itself as a valuable ally of the internationally whenever efforts were made in the UN Security Council to discuss Myanmar.
In fact, China is perhaps the single most important power with influence over the military regime. In the ten year lead time it had, China has established close military cooperation with Myanmar. In other words, as long as India and China have a peaceful and constructive relationship, India-Myanmar relations will flourish in the present political dispensation.
Understanding the military regime Traditionally and qualitatively the Tatmadaw differs from the armies of South Asian countries which started as instruments of British colonial power. However, in Burma, the British used the more dependable Indian Army for security and did not create a large Burmese army. The Thirty Comrades had been deciding the political destiny of Burma. Thus western concept of democracy did not take root in Burma..
So after Myanmar became free in , for next 14 years the multi party democracy in action was disastrous. Even after the exit of Ne Win in , the military regime has managed to hold on to power. Rudimentary democracy introduced under the tutelage of the Tatmadaw was a single party rule that was a handmaiden of the military masters. Thus the Tatmadaw feels it has a legitimate role in ensuring stability and security in the country, if necessary outside the control of political masters.
This feeling of the armed forces seeking a perpetual role in power is the main road block in evolving a democratic constitution. There is close integration of military commanders in local development council activities. Most of the public sector undertakings are headed by military officers. This has built a vested interest in the armed forces to stay in power in any scheme of governance. It has more than doubled in size since the SPDC took power in It has around infantry battalions Tat Yin including light infantry battalions employed in counter insurgency operations.
Myanmar tank fleet comprises of Soviet-designed T 72Ss and around Chinese built main battle tanks of different models. The Tatmadaw is considered an effective force in combating insurgency as evident from its ability to successfully handle nearly 45 insurgent groups during the last three decades.
However, it is considered as having little experience in conducting conventional operations. The Air Force has very limited transport lift capability. The Tatmadaw will always remain a dominant factor in running the country regardless of the type of rule. This is somewhat similar to the role often assumed by armies in deciding the fate of the nation in countries like Pakistan and Indonesia.
So at present any dispensation to restore democracy will have to involve the concurrence if not cooperation of the Tatmadaw. Conclusion Myanmar has a great deal of strategic significance for both India and China. Over the last two decades the Chinese have built very close economic, political, military and developmental relations with Myanmar. Following a policy of non-interference in internal affairs of the country, China has become the main supplier of arms to Myanmar.
This has enabled the military junta in power to beat the western sanctions and double the army strength. It has also enabled the junta to suppress the struggle for democracy going on under the leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi since India has embarked on a policy of building closer relations with Myanmar to counter the Chinese influence and facilitate the growth of trade and commerce with ASEAN as part of its look east policy.
With a friendly regime in Myanmar, India hopes to evict Indian insurgent groups from sanctuaries in Myanmar. The military regime has welcomed these efforts to broaden its relationship with India and ASEAN countries in the interest of its own strategic security. However, India as the largest functional democracy has a larger role to play in encouraging the restoration of democracy in Myanmar. Apart from the lead it has gained in Myanmar, internationally China has greater economic, political, and military clout than India in helping out the military regime.
Understanding this, the military regime is unlikely to release Aung San Suu Kyi unless it gains a face saving role for the Tatmadaw in any future democratic set up. The military regime has been able to weather international sanctions for nearly 20 years. Similarly, the student movement holds the potential to take over a leadership role for political rapprochement with the military regime.
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